Explaining Criminal Careers
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Description
Contents
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Language
English
ISBN
Unknown
Cover
Contents
1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories
Background
Blumstein and Cohen (1979)
The National Academy Panel
Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities
Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency
Objections to Criminal Career Research
Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years
Aims of this Book
Methodological Notes
2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index
Sources of Data
Recidivism
Reconviction Rate
Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories
Gender
Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts?
3. The Theory and a Simple Model
Orientation
Introduction
The Assumptions of our Theory
Explaining the Age–Crime Curve
The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age
Modelling the Age–Crime Curve
The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders
Corollaries and Comments
Conclusion
4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders
Orientation
Introduction
Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance
Custody Rates
Serious Offenders
Less Serious Offenders
Serious Offences
Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences
Simplified Modelling of all Convictions
Versatility or Specialization in Offending
Trivial Offenders
Conclusion
5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending?
Orientation
Introduction
Possible Types of Age Dependence
Testing the Theories
Conclusion
6. Characteristics of Individuals
Orientation
Introduction
The Rationale and Development of OASys
Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data
The Distribution of Section 11 Scores
Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys?
Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions
Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis
Analysis of Operational OASys Data
Analysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction Data
Conclusions
7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System
Orientation
Introduction
The Flow Model
Predicting the Prison Population
The DNA Database
Conclusion
8. Criminal Policy Implications
Orientation
Introduction
Overview of the Theory
The Categories
Areas where Policy could Influence Crime
Childhood Early Interventions
Early Career Interventions
Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction
Offender Treatment Programmes
Prolific and other Priority Offenders
Implications and Uses of the Theory
Frequently Asked Questions
9. Summary and Conclusions
Summary
The Origin of the Offender Categories
Criminality
Recidivism
Conviction Rate λ
The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions
The Criminal Career Debate
Conclusions
Appendix: Mathematical Notes
Introduction
Constant Probability Systems
Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories
An Alternative Modelling Approach
Incapacitation
Steady State Solutions
Estimating the Active Offender Population Size
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters
Bibliography
Index
A
B
C
D
F
G
I
L
M
N
O
P
R
S
T
V
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