Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future

Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future

By Marianne Fay
Book Description

The science is unequivocal: stabilizing climate change implies bringing net carbon emissions to zero. And this must be done by 2100 if we are to keep climate change anywhere near the 2 C. degree warming that world leaders have set as the maximum acceptable limit. Decarbonizing Development looks at what it would take to decarbonize the world economy by 2100 in a way that is compatible with countries’ broader development goals. It argues that the following are needed:

  • Act early with an eye on the end-goal;

  • Go beyond prices with a policy package that triggers changes in investment patterns, technologies and behaviors;

  • Mind the political economy and smooth the transition for those who stand to be most affected.

Table of Contents
  • Cover
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • Overview
    • Planning for a Low-Carbon Future: What We Need to Do Now Depends on the End Goal
    • Enabling the Transition with a Policy Package That Is Efficient, Acceptable, and Credible
    • Managing the Transition: Protecting Poor People and Avoiding the Potential Pitfalls of Reforms
    • In Conclusion
    • References
  • Part I: Planning for a Low-Carbon Future: What to Do Now Depends on the End Goal
    • 1. Reducing Carbon Emissions to Zero
      • Stabilizing the Climate Requires Zero Net Emissions
      • Zero Net Emissions Requires Action on Four Fronts
      • Notes
      • References
    • 2. Acting Sooner Rather than Later
      • Feasible Really Means Cost-Effective
      • Cost-Effectiveness Requires Early Action
      • The Costs of Early Action Should Be Modest
      • Early Action Paths Are Prudent
      • Notes
      • References
    • 3. Planning Ahead with an Eye on the End Goal
      • Factor in Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Multiple Objectives
      • Focus on What Is Urgent and Carries Co-Benefits
      • Build Sectoral Pathways to Carbon Neutrality
      • Annex 3A: Tools to Develop Sectoral Pathways to Zero Emissions
      • Notes
      • References
  • Part II: Enabling a Low-Carbon Transition: Prices and More
    • 4. Getting Prices Right
      • A Necessary Step: Removing Fossil-Fuel Subsidies
      • The Economics of Carbon Prices—Pretty Straightforward
      • Notes
      • References
    • 5. Building Policy Packages That Are Acceptable, Credible, and Effective
      • Ensuring the Needed Technologies Are Available and Affordable
      • Ensuring the Needed Infrastructure Is in Place
      • Tackling Other Factors—Such as Behavior—That Reduce the Impact of Price Incentives
      • Notes
      • References
    • 6. Getting the Finance Flowing
      • Growing the Pie
      • Greening the Pie
      • Notes
      • References
  • Part III: Managing the Transition: Protecting the Poor and Avoiding the Potential Pitfalls of Reforms
    • 7. Ensuring the Poor Benefit
      • Direct Distributional Impacts of Right Pricing—Possibly Positive?
      • Revenue Recycling Enables Redistribution and Allows for Pro-Poor Climate Policies
      • Managing Perceived Impacts
      • Land-Use-Based Mitigation—Impacts Depend on Design
      • Notes
      • References
    • 8. Smoothing the Transition to Make It Happen
      • Managing Concentrated Losses
      • Managing the Fears of Competitiveness Loss
      • Managing the Risk of Government Failures
      • Notes
      • References
  • Boxes
    • 1.1 The “Full” Story on Greenhouse Gases
    • 2.1 An Extreme Case of Commitment—Urban Forms
    • 3.1 Short-Term Strategies Need to Be Designed Keeping the Long-Term Goal in Mind—Examples from Brazil and Germany
    • 3.2 A World Bank Software for Comparing Abatement Options: MACTool
    • 3.3 Using Space to Design Deforestation Policies
    • 4.1 Agricultural Subsidies Are Also Sizable
    • 4.2 Progress on Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Reform
    • 4.3 Gaining Momentum on Carbon Pricing
    • 4.4 Public Acceptance of Carbon Taxes: Good Communication Helps
    • 4.5 Global Mechanisms to Cut Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
    • 5.1 Fiscal Instruments to Encourage Demand for Clean Technology Products
    • 5.2 Combining Carbon Pricing with Infrastructure Development in Paris
    • 5.3 Orchestrating Renewable Power Scale-Up—The Case of India and Australia
    • 6.1 Infrastructure Investment Needs Illustrate the Challenges Faced in Securing Long-Term Financing in Developing Countries
    • 6.2 Innovative Public Finance at Work
    • 6.3 Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance’s “Call for Ideas”
    • 6.4 A Toolkit of Banking Regulation Measures for Low-Carbon Finance
    • 7.1 Nonprice Instruments Are Often Regressive
    • 7.2 Tips on a Good Communication Strategy for Fossil-Fuel Reform
    • 7.3 Managing the Impacts of Global Land-Use Initiatives on the Poor
  • Figures
    • O.1 The Tortoise and the Hare: Not Starting Early Will Entail More Drastic Emission Cuts Later
    • O.2 Using a Longer Time Frame Changes the Optimal Policy Mix for Brazil
    • O.3 Devising a Strategy Requires Information on Time, Cost, and Emission-Reduction Potential
    • O.4 How to Assess the Obstacles to Low-Carbon Solutions
    • O.5 Using Fossil Fuel Subsidy Resources for Universal Cash Transfers Benefits Poor People
    • 1.1 Rising Cumulative Emissions of CO[(sub)2] Mean Rising Temperatures
    • 1.2 Carbon Neutrality Is Needed by 2100 to Achieve Climate Goals
    • 1.3 The Four Pillars of Decarbonization
    • 1.4 The Possible Paths to Decarbonizing Electricity
    • 1.5 Low-Carbon Energy Sources Must Become Much More Widely Used
    • 1.6 The Transport Sector Needs to Tackle Both Efficiency and Fuel Shifting
    • 1.7 The Building Sector Can Focus First on Efficiency
    • 1.8 The Industry Sector Doesn’t Fall Neatly into Any One Approach
    • 1.9 Changing the Way We Eat Can Help
    • 2.1 Delaying the Peak Date Means Cutting Emissions even Faster Later
    • 2.2 Long-Lived Capital Lasts a Very Long Time
    • B2.1.1 Viewing Paris through a Public Transport Lens
    • 2.3 A Majority of Known Fossil-Fuel Reserves Will Need to Stay in the Ground
    • 2.4 Early Action Results in Fewer “Stranded Assets”
    • 2.5 Mitigation Costs Rise with More Ambitious Target, but with a Big Uncertainty Range
    • 2.6 The Costs of Mitigation to Reach the 2°C Target Varies across Regions
    • 2.7 Lower Air Pollution Means Lower Mortality Rates
    • 2.8 Early Action Investments Kept Manageable by Lower Needs in Some Sectors
    • 3.1 Some Countries Worry Much More about Environmental Issues than Others
    • 3.2 Evaluating a Policy Package along Several Dimensions
    • 3.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves Provide Information on the Cost and Potential of Emission-Reduction Options
    • B3.1.1 Using a Longer Time Frame Changes the Preferred Investment Plan
    • 3.4 Devising a Strategy Requires Information on Time, Cost, and Mitigation Potential
    • B3.3.1 The Costs of Avoiding Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
    • 3A.1 Formulating a Power Sector Strategy for Europe and North Africa
    • 4.1 Fossil-Fuel Subsidies in the Middle East Distort Incentives for Clean Energy
    • 4.2 Fossil-Fuel Subsidies in the Middle East Lengthen Payback Period for Investments in Energy Efficiency
    • 4.3 A Rising Rate Can Offset a Declining Tax Base
    • 5.1 Green Innovation Generates Much Greater Knowledge Spillovers than Brown Innovation
    • B5.2.1 Carbon Taxes Work Best When Public Transport Is Available
    • 5.2 Institutions with a Shadow Carbon Price Use a Range of Value That Increases over Time
    • 5.3 How to Assess the Obstacles to Low-Carbon Solutions
    • 5.4 What Matters Is the Relative Lifetime Energy Cost
    • 6.1 After Two Decades of Growth, Private Infrastructure Investments in Developing Countries Seem to Have Plateaued
    • 6.2 Project Preparation Costs Can Sharply Increase the Overall Tab
    • 6.3 Multilateral Development Bank Lending for Infrastructure Peaked in 2010
    • 6.4 Annual Green Bond Issuances Are Up Dramatically
    • 7.1 Using Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Resources for Universal Cash Transfers Benefits Poor People
    • B7.2.1 Most Egyptian Households Were Unaware of the Size of the Energy Subsidy
  • Maps
    • B4.2.1 Many Countries Are Moving to Reform Fossil-Fuel Subsidies
    • B4.3.1 More Countries Are Turning to Carbon Pricing
    • 5.1 Pinpointing Where to Install Large Solar Power Plants in South Africa
  • Tables
    • 3.1 Some Guiding Principles for Establishing Green Growth Strategies
    • 3.2 Examples of Possible Sectoral Targets for Tracking Progress toward the Decarbonization End Goal
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