Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Channing Arndt
Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
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While the economic growth renaissance in sub-Saharan Africa is widely recognized, much less is known about progress in living conditions. This book comprehensively evaluates trends in living conditions in 16 major sub-Saharan African countries, corresponding to nearly 75% of the total population. A striking diversity of experience emerges. While monetary indicators improved in many countries, others are yet to succeed in channeling the benefits of economic growth into the pockets of the poor. Some countries experienced little economic growth, and saw little material progress for the poor. At the same time, the large majority of countries have made impressive progress in key non-monetary indicators of wellbeing. Overall, the African growth renaissance earns two cheers, but not three. While gains in macroeconomic and political stability are real, they are also fragile. Growth on a per capita basis is much better than in the 1980s and 1990s, yet not rapid compared with other developing regions. Importantly from a pan-African perspective, key economies-particularly Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa-are not among the better performers. Looking forward, realistic expectations are required. The development process is, almost always, a long hard slog. Nevertheless, real and durable factors appear to be at play on the sub-continent with positive implications for growth and poverty reduction in future.

Language
English
ISBN
Unknown
Cover
Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Copyright
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Boxes
List of Abbreviations
Notes on Contributors
1: Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.1 Introduction
1.2 The Growth Recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.3 Evidence on African Development
1.3.1 Non-monetary Measures
1.3.2 Monetary Measures
1.4 Summing Up
References
2: Synthesis: Two Cheers for the African Growth Renaissance (but not Three)
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Country Typologies
2.2.1 The Poverty, Growth, and Inequality Triangle
2.2.2 Country Categorization
2.3 Lessons
2.3.1 Peace and Stability
2.3.2 Data Issues
2.3.3 Volatility of Monetary Poverty
2.3.4 Importance of Multidimensional Assessments
2.3.5 The Role of Agriculture
2.3.6 Relative Prices
2.3.7 Aid Flows
2.4 The Perils of Existing Cross-Country Studies
2.5 Summing Up and Looking Forward
References
Part 1 Rapid Growth and Rapid Poverty Reduction
3: Poverty in Ethiopia, 2000-11: Welfare Improvements in a Changing Economic Landscape
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Data and Poverty Lines
3.2.1 Data
3.2.2 Regional Cost of Basic Needs Poverty Lines
3.3 Context
3.4 Poverty and Inequality in the 2000s
3.4.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
3.4.2 Poverty, GDP, and Inflation
3.4.3 HICES Poverty and Other Data Sources on Monetary Poverty
3.4.4 Poverty and Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
3.4.5 Poverty and Access to Public Goods
3.5 Concluding Remarks
References
4: Ghana: Poverty Reduction over Thirty Years
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Economic Developments and Policies Implemented to Reduce Poverty
4.3 The Macroeconomic Environment
4.4 The Record on Consumption Poverty
4.5 Progress in Non-monetary Indicators
4.6 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
5: Did Rapid Smallholder-Led Agricultural Growth Fail to Reduce Rural Poverty? Making Sense of Malawi´s Poverty Puzzle
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Recent Evidence of Growth and Poverty Trends in Malawi
5.3 Constructing Regional Poverty Lines for Malawi
5.3.1 Poverty and Prices
5.3.2 Regions, Preferences, and Utility Consistency
5.4 Results and Analysis
5.4.1 Monetary Poverty Analysis
5.4.2 Non-monetary Poverty Analysis
5.5 Conclusion
References
6: Growth, Poverty Reduction, and Inequality in Rwanda
6.1 Country Context and Economic Performance
6.2 The Evolution of Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
6.3 Trends in Consumption Poverty and Inequality
6.4 Analysing Household Mobility Based on a Small Panel Dataset
6.5 Conclusions
References
7: Poverty and its Dynamics in Uganda: Explorations Using a New Set of Poverty Lines
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Poverty in Uganda: Trends and Controversies
7.3 Utility-Consistent Poverty Lines Using Revealed Preferences
7.4 A Reassessment of Poverty and its Evolution in Uganda
7.5 A Profile Based on Poverty Dynamics
7.5.1 Location
7.5.2 Household Demographics
7.5.3 Activity
7.5.4 Education
7.5.5 Health
7.5.6 Shocks and Coping
7.6 Conclusion
References
Part 2 Rapid Growth but Limited Poverty Reduction
8: Burkina Faso: Shipping around the Malthusian Trap
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Country Context and Background
8.3 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics
8.3.1 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics over the Period 1994 to 2003
8.3.2 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics over the Period 2003 to 2009
8.4 An Analysis of the Underlying Driving Forces
8.4.1 Sectoral Analysis
8.4.2 The Development of Land Use, Production, and Productivity in Food and Cotton Production
8.4.3 Food Price Dynamics
8.4.4 Undernutrition and Child Mortality
8.5 Conclusion and Policy Perspectives
References
9: Mozambique: Off-track or Temporarily Sidelined?
9.1 Introduction
9.2 The Record from the mid-1990s to 2009
9.2.1 Growth and Monetary Measures of Poverty
9.2.2 Non-monetary Poverty Measures
9.2.2.1 Assets
9.2.2.2 Access to Education
9.2.2.3 Access to Health Services and Clean Water
9.2.2.4 Anthropometric Measures of Well-being
9.3 Macroeconomic Consistency
9.3.1 Basic Accounts
9.3.2 Consumption Poverty Headcount Estimates
9.3.3 GDP Growth
9.3.4 Components of Absorption
9.3.5 Terms of Trade
9.3.6 Inequality
9.3.7 Formal Assessment of Macroeconomic Factors
9.4 Current Perspectives
References
10: Spatial and Temporal Multidimensional Poverty in Nigeria
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Situation Analysis of Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Nigeria
10.2.1 Economic Growth
10.2.2 Poverty
10.3 Methodology
10.3.1 Approach
10.3.2 Data Sources
10.3.3 Choice of Welfare Indicators
10.4 Results and Discussion
10.4.1 Households According to Welfare Indicators
10.4.2 Share of Households in Multidimensional Welfare Combinations
10.4.3 Domination Comparisons: Spatial Analyses
10.4.4 Net Dominance and Inequality
10.4.5 Temporal FOD Comparisons
10.5 Conclusion
References
11: Growth and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania
11.1 Introduction
11.2 The Recent Pattern of Growth in Tanzania
11.3 Micro-Level Evidence on Consumption Poverty in Tanzania and its Responsiveness to Growth
11.4 The Pattern of Poverty Change in Tanzania and an Evaluation of its Robustness
11.5 The Non-monetary Poverty Story
11.6 Conclusions
References
12: Assessing Progress in Welfare Improvements in Zambia: A Multidimensional Approach
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Context
12.2.1 Economy and Growth
12.2.2 Poverty Trends
12.3 FOD Methodology and Data
12.3.1 Methodology
12.3.2 Data
12.3.3 FOD Indicators
12.4 Assessing the Progress in Improving Welfare
12.4.1 Levels of Deprivation
12.4.2 Number of Deprivations
12.4.3 Temporal FOD Comparisons
12.4.4 Spatial FOD Comparisons
12.4.5 Ranking of Provinces
12.5 Discussion
References
Part 3 Uninspiring/Negative Growth and Poverty Reduction
13: Slow Progress in Growth and Poverty Reduction in Cameroon
13.1 Introduction
13.2 The History of Growth Performance in Cameroon
13.2.1 Prior to Oil Exploitation: 1960-77
13.2.2 The Arrival of Oil: 1978-86
13.2.3 The Economic Crisis: 1987-93
13.2.4 The Post-Devaluation Period (1994 to Date)
13.2.5 Sources of Growth and Total Factor Productivity
13.2.6 Policy and Political Economy Factors, Sources of Growth, and Total Factor Productivity
13.3 National-Level Patterns of Changes in Poverty, Inequality, and Household Welfare
13.3.1 Data Sources and Consumption Trends
13.3.2 Patterns of Monetary Poverty
13.3.3 Distributional Pattern of Change
13.4 Changes in Non-monetary Poverty
13.5 Conclusions and Policy Priorities
Acknowledgements
References
14: The Fall of the Elephant: Two Decades of Poverty Increase in Côte d´Ivoire, 1988-2008
14.1 Introduction
14.2 The Rise of the Elephant until the End of the 1980s
14.3 Data Description and Methodology
14.3.1 Construction of the Consumption Variable
14.3.2 Consumer Prices
14.4 The Decade of Uncertainties: 1988-98
14.4.1 The Great Cocoa Shock: 1988-94
14.4.2 The CFA Franc Devaluation Bounce-Back: 1994-8
14.5 The Erratic Civil War: 1998-2012
14.5.1 The Elephant Falling Down: 1998-2002
14.5.2 A Country Split in Two: 2002-8
14.5.3 The Last Episode of Civil War (2008-11)
14.6 Conclusion
Appendix
Acknowledgements
References
15: Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty in Kenya: A Long-Term Perspective
15.1 Introduction
15.2 The Evolution of Kenyan Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty during the Twentieth Century
15.2.1 The Period up to the First World War
15.2.2 The Interwar Period
15.2.3 The Post-War Period, 1945-63
15.2.4 The First Post-Independence Period, 1963-76
15.2.5 Economic Inequality and Poverty, 1914-76
15.2.6 Factor Incomes, 1964-2000
15.3 Measurement Challenges
15.4 The Evolution of GDP, Factor Proportions, and Employment, 1994-2012
15.5 The Evolution of Poverty and Inequality, 1980s-2000s
15.5.1 Monetary Measures
15.5.2 Non-monetary Poverty Measures
15.6 Policy Challenges
15.7 Concluding Remarks
References
16: Utility-Consistent Poverty in Madagascar, 2001-10: Snapshots in the Presence of Multiple Economy-Wide Shocks
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Data and Poverty Lines
16.3 Context
16.4 Poverty and Inequality in the 2000s
16.4.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
16.4.2 Poverty and GDP
16.4.3 EPM Poverty and Other Data Sources on Monetary Poverty
16.4.4 Poverty and Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
16.5 Concluding Remarks
References
17: Poverty, Inequality, and Prices in Post-Apartheid South Africa
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Existing Evidence on the Evolution of Post-Apartheid Well-being
17.2.1 The Narrative
17.2.2 Trends in Money-Metric Poverty and Inequality
17.2.3 Trends in Non-Money-Metric Poverty
17.3 Poverty, Inequality, and Prices
17.3.1 The Availability of Data to Assess the Role of Prices
17.3.2 Does Accounting for Price Changes Affect Poverty Trends?
17.3.3 Does Accounting for Price Changes Affect Inequality Trends?
17.4 Which Prices Drove these Price Impacts on Poverty and Inequality?
17.5 Conclusion
References
PART 4 Low-Information Countries
18: Growth and Poverty in the Democratic Republic of Congo: 2001 through 2013
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Economy and Growth
18.2.1 Independence to 2002: Instability and Recovery
18.2.2 2001-14: Recovery and Growth
18.2.2.1 Reform Strategies
18.2.2.2 Inflation
18.2.2.3 Sectoral Growth
18.2.2.4 Challenges to Growth
18.3 Poverty Profile
18.3.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
18.3.2 Non-monetary Poverty Profile
18.4 FOD Methodology and Data
18.4.1 Methodology
18.4.2 Deprivation Indicators
18.4.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics
18.5 Results: FOD Comparisons
18.5.1 Temporal Comparisons
18.5.2 Spatial Comparisons
18.5.3 Spatial Rankings
18.6 Discussion
References
Index
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