Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa

By Channing Arndt
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Book Description

While the economic growth renaissance in sub-Saharan Africa is widely recognized, much less is known about progress in living conditions. This book comprehensively evaluates trends in living conditions in 16 major sub-Saharan African countries, corresponding to nearly 75% of the total population. A striking diversity of experience emerges. While monetary indicators improved in many countries, others are yet to succeed in channeling the benefits of economic growth into the pockets of the poor. Some countries experienced little economic growth, and saw little material progress for the poor. At the same time, the large majority of countries have made impressive progress in key non-monetary indicators of wellbeing. Overall, the African growth renaissance earns two cheers, but not three. While gains in macroeconomic and political stability are real, they are also fragile. Growth on a per capita basis is much better than in the 1980s and 1990s, yet not rapid compared with other developing regions. Importantly from a pan-African perspective, key economies-particularly Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa-are not among the better performers. Looking forward, realistic expectations are required. The development process is, almost always, a long hard slog. Nevertheless, real and durable factors appear to be at play on the sub-continent with positive implications for growth and poverty reduction in future.

Table of Contents
  • Cover
  • Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Copyright
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgements
  • Contents
  • List of Figures
  • List of Tables
  • List of Boxes
  • List of Abbreviations
  • Notes on Contributors
  • 1: Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
    • 1.1 Introduction
    • 1.2 The Growth Recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa
    • 1.3 Evidence on African Development
      • 1.3.1 Non-monetary Measures
      • 1.3.2 Monetary Measures
    • 1.4 Summing Up
    • References
  • 2: Synthesis: Two Cheers for the African Growth Renaissance (but not Three)
    • 2.1 Introduction
    • 2.2 Country Typologies
      • 2.2.1 The Poverty, Growth, and Inequality Triangle
      • 2.2.2 Country Categorization
    • 2.3 Lessons
      • 2.3.1 Peace and Stability
      • 2.3.2 Data Issues
      • 2.3.3 Volatility of Monetary Poverty
      • 2.3.4 Importance of Multidimensional Assessments
      • 2.3.5 The Role of Agriculture
      • 2.3.6 Relative Prices
      • 2.3.7 Aid Flows
    • 2.4 The Perils of Existing Cross-Country Studies
    • 2.5 Summing Up and Looking Forward
    • References
  • Part 1 Rapid Growth and Rapid Poverty Reduction
    • 3: Poverty in Ethiopia, 2000-11: Welfare Improvements in a Changing Economic Landscape
      • 3.1 Introduction
      • 3.2 Data and Poverty Lines
        • 3.2.1 Data
        • 3.2.2 Regional Cost of Basic Needs Poverty Lines
      • 3.3 Context
      • 3.4 Poverty and Inequality in the 2000s
        • 3.4.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
        • 3.4.2 Poverty, GDP, and Inflation
        • 3.4.3 HICES Poverty and Other Data Sources on Monetary Poverty
        • 3.4.4 Poverty and Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
        • 3.4.5 Poverty and Access to Public Goods
      • 3.5 Concluding Remarks
      • References
    • 4: Ghana: Poverty Reduction over Thirty Years
      • 4.1 Introduction
      • 4.2 Economic Developments and Policies Implemented to Reduce Poverty
      • 4.3 The Macroeconomic Environment
      • 4.4 The Record on Consumption Poverty
      • 4.5 Progress in Non-monetary Indicators
      • 4.6 Conclusions
      • Acknowledgements
      • References
    • 5: Did Rapid Smallholder-Led Agricultural Growth Fail to Reduce Rural Poverty? Making Sense of Malawi´s Poverty Puzzle
      • 5.1 Introduction
      • 5.2 Recent Evidence of Growth and Poverty Trends in Malawi
      • 5.3 Constructing Regional Poverty Lines for Malawi
        • 5.3.1 Poverty and Prices
        • 5.3.2 Regions, Preferences, and Utility Consistency
      • 5.4 Results and Analysis
        • 5.4.1 Monetary Poverty Analysis
        • 5.4.2 Non-monetary Poverty Analysis
      • 5.5 Conclusion
      • References
    • 6: Growth, Poverty Reduction, and Inequality in Rwanda
      • 6.1 Country Context and Economic Performance
      • 6.2 The Evolution of Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
      • 6.3 Trends in Consumption Poverty and Inequality
      • 6.4 Analysing Household Mobility Based on a Small Panel Dataset
      • 6.5 Conclusions
      • References
    • 7: Poverty and its Dynamics in Uganda: Explorations Using a New Set of Poverty Lines
      • 7.1 Introduction
      • 7.2 Poverty in Uganda: Trends and Controversies
      • 7.3 Utility-Consistent Poverty Lines Using Revealed Preferences
      • 7.4 A Reassessment of Poverty and its Evolution in Uganda
      • 7.5 A Profile Based on Poverty Dynamics
        • 7.5.1 Location
        • 7.5.2 Household Demographics
        • 7.5.3 Activity
        • 7.5.4 Education
        • 7.5.5 Health
        • 7.5.6 Shocks and Coping
      • 7.6 Conclusion
      • References
  • Part 2 Rapid Growth but Limited Poverty Reduction
    • 8: Burkina Faso: Shipping around the Malthusian Trap
      • 8.1 Introduction
      • 8.2 Country Context and Background
      • 8.3 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics
        • 8.3.1 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics over the Period 1994 to 2003
        • 8.3.2 Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics over the Period 2003 to 2009
      • 8.4 An Analysis of the Underlying Driving Forces
        • 8.4.1 Sectoral Analysis
        • 8.4.2 The Development of Land Use, Production, and Productivity in Food and Cotton Production
        • 8.4.3 Food Price Dynamics
        • 8.4.4 Undernutrition and Child Mortality
      • 8.5 Conclusion and Policy Perspectives
      • References
    • 9: Mozambique: Off-track or Temporarily Sidelined?
      • 9.1 Introduction
      • 9.2 The Record from the mid-1990s to 2009
        • 9.2.1 Growth and Monetary Measures of Poverty
        • 9.2.2 Non-monetary Poverty Measures
          • 9.2.2.1 Assets
          • 9.2.2.2 Access to Education
          • 9.2.2.3 Access to Health Services and Clean Water
          • 9.2.2.4 Anthropometric Measures of Well-being
      • 9.3 Macroeconomic Consistency
        • 9.3.1 Basic Accounts
        • 9.3.2 Consumption Poverty Headcount Estimates
        • 9.3.3 GDP Growth
        • 9.3.4 Components of Absorption
        • 9.3.5 Terms of Trade
        • 9.3.6 Inequality
        • 9.3.7 Formal Assessment of Macroeconomic Factors
      • 9.4 Current Perspectives
      • References
    • 10: Spatial and Temporal Multidimensional Poverty in Nigeria
      • 10.1 Introduction
      • 10.2 Situation Analysis of Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Nigeria
        • 10.2.1 Economic Growth
        • 10.2.2 Poverty
      • 10.3 Methodology
        • 10.3.1 Approach
        • 10.3.2 Data Sources
        • 10.3.3 Choice of Welfare Indicators
      • 10.4 Results and Discussion
        • 10.4.1 Households According to Welfare Indicators
        • 10.4.2 Share of Households in Multidimensional Welfare Combinations
        • 10.4.3 Domination Comparisons: Spatial Analyses
        • 10.4.4 Net Dominance and Inequality
        • 10.4.5 Temporal FOD Comparisons
      • 10.5 Conclusion
      • References
    • 11: Growth and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania
      • 11.1 Introduction
      • 11.2 The Recent Pattern of Growth in Tanzania
      • 11.3 Micro-Level Evidence on Consumption Poverty in Tanzania and its Responsiveness to Growth
      • 11.4 The Pattern of Poverty Change in Tanzania and an Evaluation of its Robustness
      • 11.5 The Non-monetary Poverty Story
      • 11.6 Conclusions
      • References
    • 12: Assessing Progress in Welfare Improvements in Zambia: A Multidimensional Approach
      • 12.1 Introduction
      • 12.2 Context
        • 12.2.1 Economy and Growth
        • 12.2.2 Poverty Trends
      • 12.3 FOD Methodology and Data
        • 12.3.1 Methodology
        • 12.3.2 Data
        • 12.3.3 FOD Indicators
      • 12.4 Assessing the Progress in Improving Welfare
        • 12.4.1 Levels of Deprivation
        • 12.4.2 Number of Deprivations
        • 12.4.3 Temporal FOD Comparisons
        • 12.4.4 Spatial FOD Comparisons
        • 12.4.5 Ranking of Provinces
      • 12.5 Discussion
      • References
  • Part 3 Uninspiring/Negative Growth and Poverty Reduction
    • 13: Slow Progress in Growth and Poverty Reduction in Cameroon
      • 13.1 Introduction
      • 13.2 The History of Growth Performance in Cameroon
        • 13.2.1 Prior to Oil Exploitation: 1960-77
        • 13.2.2 The Arrival of Oil: 1978-86
        • 13.2.3 The Economic Crisis: 1987-93
        • 13.2.4 The Post-Devaluation Period (1994 to Date)
        • 13.2.5 Sources of Growth and Total Factor Productivity
        • 13.2.6 Policy and Political Economy Factors, Sources of Growth, and Total Factor Productivity
      • 13.3 National-Level Patterns of Changes in Poverty, Inequality, and Household Welfare
        • 13.3.1 Data Sources and Consumption Trends
        • 13.3.2 Patterns of Monetary Poverty
        • 13.3.3 Distributional Pattern of Change
      • 13.4 Changes in Non-monetary Poverty
      • 13.5 Conclusions and Policy Priorities
      • Acknowledgements
      • References
    • 14: The Fall of the Elephant: Two Decades of Poverty Increase in Côte d´Ivoire, 1988-2008
      • 14.1 Introduction
      • 14.2 The Rise of the Elephant until the End of the 1980s
      • 14.3 Data Description and Methodology
        • 14.3.1 Construction of the Consumption Variable
        • 14.3.2 Consumer Prices
      • 14.4 The Decade of Uncertainties: 1988-98
        • 14.4.1 The Great Cocoa Shock: 1988-94
        • 14.4.2 The CFA Franc Devaluation Bounce-Back: 1994-8
      • 14.5 The Erratic Civil War: 1998-2012
        • 14.5.1 The Elephant Falling Down: 1998-2002
        • 14.5.2 A Country Split in Two: 2002-8
        • 14.5.3 The Last Episode of Civil War (2008-11)
      • 14.6 Conclusion
      • Appendix
      • Acknowledgements
      • References
    • 15: Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty in Kenya: A Long-Term Perspective
      • 15.1 Introduction
      • 15.2 The Evolution of Kenyan Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty during the Twentieth Century
        • 15.2.1 The Period up to the First World War
        • 15.2.2 The Interwar Period
        • 15.2.3 The Post-War Period, 1945-63
        • 15.2.4 The First Post-Independence Period, 1963-76
        • 15.2.5 Economic Inequality and Poverty, 1914-76
        • 15.2.6 Factor Incomes, 1964-2000
      • 15.3 Measurement Challenges
      • 15.4 The Evolution of GDP, Factor Proportions, and Employment, 1994-2012
      • 15.5 The Evolution of Poverty and Inequality, 1980s-2000s
        • 15.5.1 Monetary Measures
        • 15.5.2 Non-monetary Poverty Measures
      • 15.6 Policy Challenges
      • 15.7 Concluding Remarks
      • References
    • 16: Utility-Consistent Poverty in Madagascar, 2001-10: Snapshots in the Presence of Multiple Economy-Wide Shocks
      • 16.1 Introduction
      • 16.2 Data and Poverty Lines
      • 16.3 Context
      • 16.4 Poverty and Inequality in the 2000s
        • 16.4.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
        • 16.4.2 Poverty and GDP
        • 16.4.3 EPM Poverty and Other Data Sources on Monetary Poverty
        • 16.4.4 Poverty and Non-monetary Measures of Well-being
      • 16.5 Concluding Remarks
      • References
    • 17: Poverty, Inequality, and Prices in Post-Apartheid South Africa
      • 17.1 Introduction
      • 17.2 Existing Evidence on the Evolution of Post-Apartheid Well-being
        • 17.2.1 The Narrative
        • 17.2.2 Trends in Money-Metric Poverty and Inequality
        • 17.2.3 Trends in Non-Money-Metric Poverty
      • 17.3 Poverty, Inequality, and Prices
        • 17.3.1 The Availability of Data to Assess the Role of Prices
        • 17.3.2 Does Accounting for Price Changes Affect Poverty Trends?
        • 17.3.3 Does Accounting for Price Changes Affect Inequality Trends?
      • 17.4 Which Prices Drove these Price Impacts on Poverty and Inequality?
      • 17.5 Conclusion
      • References
  • PART 4 Low-Information Countries
    • 18: Growth and Poverty in the Democratic Republic of Congo: 2001 through 2013
      • 18.1 Introduction
      • 18.2 Economy and Growth
        • 18.2.1 Independence to 2002: Instability and Recovery
        • 18.2.2 2001-14: Recovery and Growth
          • 18.2.2.1 Reform Strategies
          • 18.2.2.2 Inflation
          • 18.2.2.3 Sectoral Growth
          • 18.2.2.4 Challenges to Growth
      • 18.3 Poverty Profile
        • 18.3.1 Monetary Poverty and Inequality
        • 18.3.2 Non-monetary Poverty Profile
      • 18.4 FOD Methodology and Data
        • 18.4.1 Methodology
        • 18.4.2 Deprivation Indicators
        • 18.4.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics
      • 18.5 Results: FOD Comparisons
        • 18.5.1 Temporal Comparisons
        • 18.5.2 Spatial Comparisons
        • 18.5.3 Spatial Rankings
      • 18.6 Discussion
      • References
  • Index
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