Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe: Past Developments, Current Status and Future Potentials
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Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe: Past Developments, Current Status and Future Potentials

By Michael Bommes
Free
Book Description

One of the most important challenges concerning the future of the European Union is the demographic reproduction of the European population. Decreasing birth-rates and the retirement of the baby boomers will dramatically reduce the labour force in the EU, which will entail not only a lack of manpower but also lower contributions to European social systems. It seems clear that the EU will have to counterbalance this population decrease by immigration in the coming years. Migration Between the Middle East, North Africa and Europe takes this challenge as a point of departure for analysing the MENA region, in particular Morocco, Egypt and Turkey, as a possible source of future migration to the European Union. At the same time, it illustrates the uncertainties implied in such calculations, especially at a time of radical political changes, such as those brought about by the Arab Uprising.

Table of Contents
  • Cover
  • Contents
    • Preface
    • Introduction
      • Heinz Fassmann and Wiebke Sievers
      • Assessing migration potential from the MENA region
      • Migration histories and futures: Patterns and effects
      • Policies and conflicts: Two incalculable factors influencing migration
      • Migration potential: Figures and scenarios
      • References
    • Part I – Country profiles
      • 1 Euro-Mediterranean migration futures: The cases of Morocco, Egypt and Turkey
        • Hein de Haas
        • 1.1 Introduction
        • 1.2 Beyond ‘push-pull’ frameworks: Migration systems and transitions
        • 1.3 Migration histories: Morocco, Egypt and Turkey
        • 1.4 Recent migration trends
        • 1.5 Development trends and migration futures
        • 1.6 Conclusion
        • References
      • 2 Migration and development in Egypt
        • Ayman Zohry
        • 2.1 Introduction
        • 2.2 Demography, the labour market and the political situation
        • 2.3 Egyptian emigration
        • 2.4 Migration and development
        • 2.5 Conclusion
        • References
      • 3 Turkish emigration and its implications for the sending and receiving countries
        • Ahmet İçduygu
        • 3.1 Introduction
        • 3.2 A historical account of Turkish emigration and its implications
        • 3.3 The economic, social and political consequences of emigration for Turkey
        • 3.4 The position of Turkish emigrants in Europe
        • 3.5 Conclusion
        • References
    • Part II – Arena of political regulation and conflicts
      • 4 The European Union’s international-migration relations towards Middle Eastern and North African countries
        • Andrew Geddes
        • 4.1 Introduction
        • 4.2 The EU as a political system
        • 4.3 Europe’s international migration relations
        • 4.4 Measures and instruments of EU-MENA migration relations
        • 4.5 Issue linkages
        • 4.6 Conclusion
        • References
      • 5 Political conflicts and migration in the MENA states
        • Sigrid Faath and Hanspeter Mattes
        • 5.1 Introduction
        • 5.2 The socio-economic conditions in the MENA states and migration potential
        • 5.3 The conflict situation in the MENA countries
        • 5.4 Assessment of the conflicts
        • 5.5 Future conflict developments and migration potential
        • 5.6 Final comments
        • References
      • 6 The uncertainties involved in calculating migration
        • Franz Nuscheler
        • 6.1 Preface: The methodological problem
        • 6.2 Uncertainties in security policy
        • 6.3 The ‘Islamist threat’: The main source of conflicts and forced migration?
        • 6.4 The security risks posed by climate change with subsequent migration
        • 6.5 Hotspots of regional conflict and migration
        • 6.6 Uncertain and rather dismal perspectives
        • 6.7 Conclusions
        • References
    • Part III – Prognosis, scenarios and forecasts
      • 7 Demographic developments in the MENA region
        • Ralf E. Ulrich
        • 7.1 Introduction
        • 7.2 Population dynamics of the MENA region
        • 7.3 Future population dynamics: Potential and limitations
        • 7.4 The relevance of the uneven demographic development
        • 7.5 Conclusion
        • References
      • 8 Estimating migration potential: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey
        • Heinz Fassmann
        • 8.1 Preliminary remarks
        • 8.2 Methods of estimating migration potential
        • 8.3 Future population
        • 8.4 Demography-driven calculation of the migration potential
        • 8.5 Conclusion
        • References
      • 9 Migration scenarios: Turkey, Egypt and Morocco
        • Michael Bommes, Simon Fellmer and Friederike Zigmann
        • 9.1 Introduction
        • 9.2 Methods
        • 9.3 Migration scenarios: Turkey
        • 9.4 Migration scenarios: Egypt
        • 9.5 Migration scenarios: Morocco
        • 9.6 Conclusion
        • References
    • List of contributors
  • Figures and tables
    • Figure 1.1 The migration transition
    • Figure 1.2 Emigrant stocks according to destination
    • Figure 1.3 Comparison between numbers of migrants counted by origin and destination countries
    • Figure 1.4 Turkish, Egyptian and Moroccan nationals living abroad
    • Figure 1.5 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Spain and Italy, 1994–2003
    • Figure 1.6 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Germany, 1970–2004
    • Figure 1.7 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Sweden, 1980–2003
    • Figure 1.8 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to the Netherlands, 1965–2005
    • Figure 1.9 Immigration of Turkish and Moroccan nationals to Belgium, 1985–2005
    • Figure 1.10 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to France, 1994–2003
    • Figure 1.11 Yearly migration of Moroccan and Turkish nationals to Spain, 1988–2005
    • Figure 1.12 Immigration of Moroccan, Turkish and Egyptian nationals to Italy, 1988–2003
    • Figure 1.13 Total fertility (children per woman), 1955–2050
    • Figure 1.14 Natural population increase, 1955–2050
    • Figure 1.15 Dependency ratio, 1955–2050
    • Figure 1.16 Life expectancy at birth, 1955–2050
    • Figure 1.17 GDP per capita, US$, 1970–2006
    • Figure 1.18 Per capita GDP, in US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity, 1980–2008
    • Figure 1.19 Level of democracy and autocracy (Polity 2 Index)
    • Figure 2.1 Remittances to Egypt by Egyptians abroad, 1990–2011, million US$
    • Figure 3.1 Turkish emigration flows by destination, 1961–2005
    • Figure 7.1 Urban population as percentage of total population
    • Figure 7.2 Net cross-border migration in the EU and the MENA region (’000)
    • Figure 7.3 Demographic factors in the decision to migrate
    • Figure 8.1 Age-specific migration rates in selected European countries
    • Figure 8.2 Age-specific emigration profiles
    • Figure 9.1 GDP based on purchasing power parity per capita in the EU and MENA countries, 1990–2017
    • Table 1.1 Citizens abroad as percentage of population
    • Table 1.2 Moroccan citizens residing abroad (2004)
    • Table 1.3 Turkish citizens residing abroad (2002)
    • Table 1.4 Egyptian citizens residing abroad (2000)
    • Table 2.1 Egyptian population growth, 1980–2010
    • Table 2.2 Unemployment in Egypt, 2000–2010
    • Table 2.3 Unemployment by educational level, Egypt, 2010 (%)
    • Table 2.4 Distribution of Egyptians by (Arab) country of destination, 1990–2009 (%)
    • Table 2.5 Arab nationals in the expatriate population of Arab Gulf countries, 1975–2006 (%)
    • Table 2.6 Expatriate population of Kuwait, 1989–2009 (%)
    • Table 2.7 Egyptian migration by receiving country, 2009
    • Table 2.8 Distribution of Egyptian migrants and non-migrants by age (%)
    • Table 2.9 Educational status of return migrants (from Europe) and non-migrants, Egypt 2006 (%)
    • Table 2.10 Distribution of Egyptians’ contracts to work in Arab countries by occupation, 1985–2005 (%)
    • Table 2.11 Egyptian remittances by country of emigration, 2006
    • Table 2.12 Trends in remittances of Egyptian migrants, 1990–2011 (current US$)
    • Table 3.1 Turkish citizens abroad in the mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s
    • Table 3.2 Turkish labour migration flows by destination, 1961–2010
    • Table 3.3 Number of workers sent abroad by the Turkish Employment Office, 2000–2010
    • Table 3.4 Turkish asylum seekers by destination, 1981–2010
    • Table 3.5 Turks changing citizenship in Europe by country, 1991–2010
    • Table 3.6 Remittance inflows, exports and imports in the Turkish economy, 1964–2010 (million US$)
    • Table 4.1 Key developments in EU migration and asylum policy
    • Table 7.1 Population size and change in the EU and the MENA countries
    • Table 7.2 Mortality in the EU and the MENA region
    • Table 7.3 Total fertility rates (per woman)
    • Table 7.4 International migrant stock* in the EU and the MENA countries (’000)
    • Table 7.5 EU, MENA, Egyptian, Moroccan and Turkish citizens living abroad, around the year 2000 (’000)
    • Table 7.6 Refugees according to country of asylum and country of origin, end 2010 (’000)
    • Table 7.7 Increase in population through to 2030
    • Table 7.8 Age group 0–19 years, in millions
    • Table 7.9 Youth dependency ratio, people aged 0–19 per 100 persons aged 20–64
    • Table 7.10 Adult population of employable age (20–64), in millions
    • Table 7.11 Age group 65+ (in millions)
    • Table 7.12 Age dependency ratio, persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 20–64
    • Table 7.13 Dependency ratio, persons aged <20 and >65 per 100 persons aged 20–64
    • Table 8.1 Entire population 2015 to 2050 (’000)
    • Table 8.2 Working-age population aged 15–60 years (’000)
    • Table 8.3 The gap between age-specific ‘fringes’ of the working-age population (the number of those aged 15–19 years minus the number of those aged 55–59) (’000)
    • Table 8.4 Yearly migration potential (’000), Slovakian emigration profile
    • Table 8.5 Yearly migration potential (’000), Austrian emigration profile
    • Table 8.6 Yearly migration potential (’000), Polish emigration profile
    • Table 9.1 Turkey: scenario 1
    • Table 9.2 Turkey: scenario 2
    • Table 9.3 Turkey: scenario 3
    • Table 9.4 Egypt: scenario 1
    • Table 9.5 Egypt: scenario 2
    • Table 9.6 Egypt: scenario 3
    • Table 9.7 Morocco: scenario 1
    • Table 9.8 Morocco: scenario 2
    • Table 9.9 Morocco: scenario 3
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