Name: Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe: Past Developments, Current Status and Future Potentials
ISBN: 978-90-8964-650-7

Michael Bommes

Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe: Past Developments, Current Status and Future Potentials

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One of the most important challenges concerning the future of the European Union is the demographic reproduction of the European population. Decreasing birth-rates and the retirement of the baby boomers will dramatically reduce the labour force in the EU, which will entail not only a lack of manpower but also lower contributions to European social systems. It seems clear that the EU will have to counterbalance this population decrease by immigration in the coming years. Migration Between the Middle East, North Africa and Europe takes this challenge as a point of departure for analysing the MENA region, in particular Morocco, Egypt and Turkey, as a possible source of future migration to the European Union. At the same time, it illustrates the uncertainties implied in such calculations, especially at a time of radical political changes, such as those brought about by the Arab Uprising.

Language

English

ISBN

978-90-8964-650-7

Cover

Contents

Preface

Introduction

Heinz Fassmann and Wiebke Sievers

Assessing migration potential from the MENA region

Migration histories and futures: Patterns and effects

Policies and conflicts: Two incalculable factors influencing migration

Migration potential: Figures and scenarios

References

Part I – Country profiles

1 Euro-Mediterranean migration futures: The cases of Morocco, Egypt and Turkey

Hein de Haas

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Beyond ‘push-pull’ frameworks: Migration systems and transitions

1.3 Migration histories: Morocco, Egypt and Turkey

1.4 Recent migration trends

1.5 Development trends and migration futures

1.6 Conclusion

References

2 Migration and development in Egypt

Ayman Zohry

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Demography, the labour market and the political situation

2.3 Egyptian emigration

2.4 Migration and development

2.5 Conclusion

References

3 Turkish emigration and its implications for the sending and receiving countries

Ahmet İçduygu

3.1 Introduction

3.2 A historical account of Turkish emigration and its implications

3.3 The economic, social and political consequences of emigration for Turkey

3.4 The position of Turkish emigrants in Europe

3.5 Conclusion

References

Part II – Arena of political regulation and conflicts

4 The European Union’s international-migration relations towards Middle Eastern and North African countries

Andrew Geddes

4.1 Introduction

4.2 The EU as a political system

4.3 Europe’s international migration relations

4.4 Measures and instruments of EU-MENA migration relations

4.5 Issue linkages

4.6 Conclusion

References

5 Political conflicts and migration in the MENA states

Sigrid Faath and Hanspeter Mattes

5.1 Introduction

5.2 The socio-economic conditions in the MENA states and migration potential

5.3 The conflict situation in the MENA countries

5.4 Assessment of the conflicts

5.5 Future conflict developments and migration potential

5.6 Final comments

References

6 The uncertainties involved in calculating migration

Franz Nuscheler

6.1 Preface: The methodological problem

6.2 Uncertainties in security policy

6.3 The ‘Islamist threat’: The main source of conflicts and forced migration?

6.4 The security risks posed by climate change with subsequent migration

6.5 Hotspots of regional conflict and migration

6.6 Uncertain and rather dismal perspectives

6.7 Conclusions

References

Part III – Prognosis, scenarios and forecasts

7 Demographic developments in the MENA region

Ralf E. Ulrich

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Population dynamics of the MENA region

7.3 Future population dynamics: Potential and limitations

7.4 The relevance of the uneven demographic development

7.5 Conclusion

References

8 Estimating migration potential: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey

Heinz Fassmann

8.1 Preliminary remarks

8.2 Methods of estimating migration potential

8.3 Future population

8.4 Demography-driven calculation of the migration potential

8.5 Conclusion

References

9 Migration scenarios: Turkey, Egypt and Morocco

Michael Bommes, Simon Fellmer and Friederike Zigmann

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Methods

9.3 Migration scenarios: Turkey

9.4 Migration scenarios: Egypt

9.5 Migration scenarios: Morocco

9.6 Conclusion

References

List of contributors

Figures and tables

Figure 1.1 The migration transition

Figure 1.2 Emigrant stocks according to destination

Figure 1.3 Comparison between numbers of migrants counted by origin and destination countries

Figure 1.4 Turkish, Egyptian and Moroccan nationals living abroad

Figure 1.5 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Spain and Italy, 1994–2003

Figure 1.6 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Germany, 1970–2004

Figure 1.7 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to Sweden, 1980–2003

Figure 1.8 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to the Netherlands, 1965–2005

Figure 1.9 Immigration of Turkish and Moroccan nationals to Belgium, 1985–2005

Figure 1.10 Immigration of Turkish, Moroccan and Egyptian nationals to France, 1994–2003

Figure 1.11 Yearly migration of Moroccan and Turkish nationals to Spain, 1988–2005

Figure 1.12 Immigration of Moroccan, Turkish and Egyptian nationals to Italy, 1988–2003

Figure 1.13 Total fertility (children per woman), 1955–2050

Figure 1.14 Natural population increase, 1955–2050

Figure 1.15 Dependency ratio, 1955–2050

Figure 1.16 Life expectancy at birth, 1955–2050

Figure 1.17 GDP per capita, US$, 1970–2006

Figure 1.18 Per capita GDP, in US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity, 1980–2008

Figure 1.19 Level of democracy and autocracy (Polity 2 Index)

Figure 2.1 Remittances to Egypt by Egyptians abroad, 1990–2011, million US$

Figure 3.1 Turkish emigration flows by destination, 1961–2005

Figure 7.1 Urban population as percentage of total population

Figure 7.2 Net cross-border migration in the EU and the MENA region (’000)

Figure 7.3 Demographic factors in the decision to migrate

Figure 8.1 Age-specific migration rates in selected European countries

Figure 8.2 Age-specific emigration profiles

Figure 9.1 GDP based on purchasing power parity per capita in the EU and MENA countries, 1990–2017

Table 1.1 Citizens abroad as percentage of population

Table 1.2 Moroccan citizens residing abroad (2004)

Table 1.3 Turkish citizens residing abroad (2002)

Table 1.4 Egyptian citizens residing abroad (2000)

Table 2.1 Egyptian population growth, 1980–2010

Table 2.2 Unemployment in Egypt, 2000–2010

Table 2.3 Unemployment by educational level, Egypt, 2010 (%)

Table 2.4 Distribution of Egyptians by (Arab) country of destination, 1990–2009 (%)

Table 2.5 Arab nationals in the expatriate population of Arab Gulf countries, 1975–2006 (%)

Table 2.6 Expatriate population of Kuwait, 1989–2009 (%)

Table 2.7 Egyptian migration by receiving country, 2009

Table 2.8 Distribution of Egyptian migrants and non-migrants by age (%)

Table 2.9 Educational status of return migrants (from Europe) and non-migrants, Egypt 2006 (%)

Table 2.10 Distribution of Egyptians’ contracts to work in Arab countries by occupation, 1985–2005 (%)

Table 2.11 Egyptian remittances by country of emigration, 2006

Table 2.12 Trends in remittances of Egyptian migrants, 1990–2011 (current US$)

Table 3.1 Turkish citizens abroad in the mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s

Table 3.2 Turkish labour migration flows by destination, 1961–2010

Table 3.3 Number of workers sent abroad by the Turkish Employment Office, 2000–2010

Table 3.4 Turkish asylum seekers by destination, 1981–2010

Table 3.5 Turks changing citizenship in Europe by country, 1991–2010

Table 3.6 Remittance inflows, exports and imports in the Turkish economy, 1964–2010 (million US$)

Table 4.1 Key developments in EU migration and asylum policy

Table 7.1 Population size and change in the EU and the MENA countries

Table 7.2 Mortality in the EU and the MENA region

Table 7.3 Total fertility rates (per woman)

Table 7.4 International migrant stock* in the EU and the MENA countries (’000)

Table 7.5 EU, MENA, Egyptian, Moroccan and Turkish citizens living abroad, around the year 2000 (’000)

Table 7.6 Refugees according to country of asylum and country of origin, end 2010 (’000)

Table 7.7 Increase in population through to 2030

Table 7.8 Age group 0–19 years, in millions

Table 7.9 Youth dependency ratio, people aged 0–19 per 100 persons aged 20–64

Table 7.10 Adult population of employable age (20–64), in millions

Table 7.11 Age group 65+ (in millions)

Table 7.12 Age dependency ratio, persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 20–64

Table 7.13 Dependency ratio, persons aged <20 and >65 per 100 persons aged 20–64

Table 8.1 Entire population 2015 to 2050 (’000)

Table 8.2 Working-age population aged 15–60 years (’000)

Table 8.3 The gap between age-specific ‘fringes’ of the working-age population (the number of those aged 15–19 years minus the number of those aged 55–59) (’000)

Table 8.4 Yearly migration potential (’000), Slovakian emigration profile

Table 8.5 Yearly migration potential (’000), Austrian emigration profile

Table 8.6 Yearly migration potential (’000), Polish emigration profile

Table 9.1 Turkey: scenario 1

Table 9.2 Turkey: scenario 2

Table 9.3 Turkey: scenario 3

Table 9.4 Egypt: scenario 1

Table 9.5 Egypt: scenario 2

Table 9.6 Egypt: scenario 3

Table 9.7 Morocco: scenario 1

Table 9.8 Morocco: scenario 2

Table 9.9 Morocco: scenario 3

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