thinkbayes
Free

thinkbayes

By Unknown
Free
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Book Description
Table of Contents
  • Preface
    • My theory, which is mine
    • Modeling and approximation
    • Working with the code
    • Code style
    • Prerequisites
  • Bayes's Theorem
    • Conditional probability
    • Conjoint probability
    • The cookie problem
    • Bayes's theorem
    • The diachronic interpretation
    • The M&M problem
    • The Monty Hall problem
    • Discussion
  • Computational Statistics
    • Distributions
    • The cookie problem
    • The Bayesian framework
    • The Monty Hall problem
    • Encapsulating the framework
    • The M&M problem
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Estimation
    • The dice problem
    • The locomotive problem
    • What about that prior?
    • An alternative prior
    • Credible intervals
    • Cumulative distribution functions
    • The German tank problem
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • More Estimation
    • The Euro problem
    • Summarizing the posterior
    • Swamping the priors
    • Optimization
    • The beta distribution
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Odds and Addends
    • Odds
    • The odds form of Bayes's theorem
    • Oliver's blood
    • Addends
    • Maxima
    • Mixtures
    • Discussion
  • Decision Analysis
    • The Price is Right problem
    • The prior
    • Probability density functions
    • Representing PDFs
    • Modeling the contestants
    • Likelihood
    • Update
    • Optimal bidding
    • Discussion
  • Prediction
    • The Boston Bruins problem
    • Poisson processes
    • The posteriors
    • The distribution of goals
    • The probability of winning
    • Sudden death
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Observer Bias
    • The Red Line problem
    • The model
    • Wait times
    • Predicting wait times
    • Estimating the arrival rate
    • Incorporating uncertainty
    • Decision analysis
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Two Dimensions
    • Paintball
    • The suite
    • Trigonometry
    • Likelihood
    • Joint distributions
    • Conditional distributions
    • Credible intervals
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Approximate Bayesian Computation
    • The Variability Hypothesis
    • Mean and standard deviation
    • Update
    • The posterior distribution of CV
    • Underflow
    • Log-likelihood
    • A little optimization
    • ABC
    • Robust estimation
    • Who is more variable?
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Hypothesis Testing
    • Back to the Euro problem
    • Making a fair comparison
    • The triangle prior
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Evidence
    • Interpreting SAT scores
    • The scale
    • The prior
    • Posterior
    • A better model
    • Calibration
    • Posterior distribution of efficacy
    • Predictive distribution
    • Discussion
  • Simulation
    • The Kidney Tumor problem
    • A simple model
    • A more general model
    • Implementation
    • Caching the joint distribution
    • Conditional distributions
    • Serial Correlation
    • Discussion
  • A Hierarchical Model
    • The Geiger counter problem
    • Start simple
    • Make it hierarchical
    • A little optimization
    • Extracting the posteriors
    • Discussion
    • Exercises
  • Dealing with Dimensions
    • Belly button bacteria
    • Lions and tigers and bears
    • The hierarchical version
    • Random sampling
    • Optimization
    • Collapsing the hierarchy
    • One more problem
    • We're not done yet
    • The belly button data
    • Predictive distributions
    • Joint posterior
    • Coverage
    • Discussion
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